What is the Chinese economic growth like? Many economic analysts and researchers have different views on this question. Some say that the one-time effect of the Global Financial Recession has left China with a large economic surplus, which will be dispersed to other parts of the world. The remaining surplus, say some experts, will be used by the government either for its planned economy restructuring or to finance other projects. Meanwhile, other economic experts believe that China's trade surplus will fall sharply because of the US-backed global trade pact (the Global Partnership Agreement).
According to the most recent estimates from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in China in2019 was $1.274 trillion – a rise of roughly six percent from the previous year. The growth rate in fiscal policy easing has been moderate but consistent. The slowdown in late 2021 was mainly due to weaker domestic investment spending. This lack of business investment meant that companies in China slowed down their business operation and hiring, reducing the workforce available.
In recent years, the government has taken various measures to stimulate economic activity in China, most notably, massive currency devaluation and opening up the economy to global trade. These moves have been accompanied by extensive measures to reform the inefficient state-run banks and encourage more efficient private financial activities. However, despite these measures, analysts are warning against anticipating a sudden and substantial improvement in China's economic performance. A slow accumulation of reforms is unlikely to raise disposable income sufficiently to allow people to spend more than their existing savings will allow.
As a prelude to improving China's economic growth, it would be helpful if the Chinese people could channel more resources and investment into productive activities. They should not expect any significant changes in the structure of the economy, especially the Chinese State controlled sector. They are also unlikely to see significant changes in the rate of price increase. The factors governing the operation of the free market are too fixed to allow substantial changes.
As long as the state plays a leading role in economic policy, they will continue to exercise significant economic authority. They may attempt to nationalize large industries, though this strategy has never been successful. The central government may resort to protectionism, either through state owned enterprises or through currency manipulation. Major economic policies that shift the balance of power away from private businesses and towards the state will only lead to higher inflation and increased unemployment.
China's future economic growth will depend on how it adjusts to current, and future, external factors. The current trend in globalisation and liberalization will continue. The main threat comes from advanced economies using state owned enterprises to capture foreign trade. If this happens, China will be forced to reform its economy in order to remain competitive.
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